Europe's Storm Track has taken an Aggressive Turn...
An aggressive Atlantic storm track will send three low-pressure systems across northern and western Europe between 20 October and the weekend. The strongest one, on Thursday, will bring damaging winds, high seas and up to 100 mm or more of rain to Ireland, the UK and France. A severe thunderstorm and flood threat hits the Mediterranean and Italy today, while the real cold air stays locked up to the north.
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- Said here alone: 30
In English; the Slovenian edition is in preparation.
What it says
- After a ridgy, warm October, the jet stream over Europe has turned aggressive, says meteorologist Brian Shields, and three areas of low pressure will move in off the Atlantic between Tuesday 20 October 2026 and the weekend. Today the main danger is a severe thunderstorm threat across the Mediterranean islands, Corsica and Italy. Damaging winds, small hail, an isolated tornado or waterspout and very heavy downpours are possible there, with 150–200 mm locally, much of it falling today and tonight. A first, weaker low brings rain to the Benelux and Germany. The second low, on Thursday, is the strongest. It will cross Ireland, Wales, England and Scotland and then move on to Scandinavia, with gusts of 100–110 km/h inland and 130–145 km/h offshore. That could mean tree damage, spotty power outages, rough seas and coastal overwash. A third low tracks further north toward Iceland but drags more rain down into France, and Alpine snow is possible by Saturday. Five-day rain totals of 50–100 mm are widespread, locally 125 mm. Southern Europe stays warmer than average, and the real cold air stays to the north for now.
- Brian Shields says parts of France have had severe flooding from big downpours in the days before 20 October 2026. u6 ·
- The third low-pressure system is forecast to lift further north toward Iceland at the weekend. It still drapes a band of rain down through France. u16–17 ·
- Brian Shields forecasts gusts of about 80 km/h (50 mph) to 110 km/h (70 mph) with Thursday's storm. Offshore gusts could push 130–145 km/h (about 90 mph). u19–20 · The 130–145 km/h figures refer to the open waters offshore, not land.
- For Thursday night into Friday, Shields forecasts winds of 60–70 mph (about 100–110 km/h) across Ireland, Wales, England and parts of France, with higher speeds near the water. u23–25 ·
- More snow is possible in the Alps by Saturday, and the weekend system adds to snow totals on higher terrain. u29–30 ·
- Portugal and Spain are forecast to stay relatively quiet this week. The exception is the area near Valencia and Barcelona. u29–39 ·
- Rain chances are expected to rise in Albania and Greece by Sunday as a push of moisture moves in. u30–31 ·
- Belarus and Lithuania are forecast to get only about 10–25 mm of rain over five days because the systems weaken as they move east. u37–38 ·
- The Netherlands could pick up about 25 mm of rain in places. Repeated downpours could push a few spots above 75 mm, or even above 100 mm. u38–39 ·
- Rain totals of 150–200 mm are possible in the southern sector where today's severe thunderstorms hit. Much of that five-day total falls today and tonight. u39–40 · The sector meant appears to be Italy and the central Mediterranean, around where the severe weather threat is.
- Shields asks viewers to report local conditions in the comments, especially during the severe weather threat, so that others know what is happening. u44–45 · The request is for viewers who are dealing with the adverse weather.
- Shields says ridging over Europe this October allowed above-average temperatures and helped bring the recent severe weather to southern Europe. u2–3 · This explains why southern Europe has stayed warm and stormy while the main storm track runs further north.
- The southern zones stay above average in temperature because the storm track mostly stays to the north, and the real cold air also stays locked up there. u4–44 · It explains why there is no early-season cold blast despite the active pattern.
- The busier storm pattern matches the forecasters' earlier expectation that autumn would trend wetter, and Shields presents it as a first hint of that trend. u11 · It ties this week's storms to the seasonal outlook.
- Winds from Thursday's storm will be strongest along coasts, because air coming in off the water over a big fetch keeps more of its speed. u21–22 · Coastal residents should expect higher gusts than the inland figures.
- Coastal overwash is most likely on low-lying shores that take on water and have no nearby cliffs or rocky terrain to protect them. u26 · The coast's shape decides where the high seas turn into coastal flooding.
- An aggressive storm track off the Atlantic will push three areas of low pressure across northern and western Europe from 20 October 2026 through the weekend. u4 ·
- Today, 20 October, there is a severe thunderstorm threat across the Mediterranean, Corsica and Italy. It brings damaging winds, small hail, a possible isolated tornado or waterspout and flooding downpours. u7 ·
- Thursday's storm system is expected to be the most aggressive of the three. It moves across Ireland, Wales and England and then on toward Norway, Sweden and Denmark by Friday and Saturday. u12 ·
- Thursday's storm could cause tree damage and spotty power outages in Ireland, the UK and northern France. Rough seas could also cause coastal overwash. u20–26 ·
- Five-day rain totals through Saturday of 50–100 mm are widely possible under the northern storm track, with some spots reaching about 125 mm. u36–37 ·
- Will the real cold air, or bigger chills, reach Europe in November and into winter? u43–44 · Shields says the cold is still locked up to the north for now and promises to cover the longer-term pattern in later videos.
- Shields sums up the shape of the week's pattern. u1 · It puts the forecast's main message in his own words.
- Shields recaps the week's overall threat. u42 · It gives the whole forecast in one passage.
- The five-day rain map shows an unusual amount of white, meaning 100 mm, which Shields says is different for a change. u35–36 · Five-day totals that high are not usually so widespread.
- Much of the southern sector's five-day rain total of up to 200 mm is expected to fall today and tonight alone, in severe thunderstorm downpours. u39–40 · One would read a five-day total as rain spread over five days, not falling mostly within one.
- The heavy weather is not expected everywhere. Shields stresses that not all areas get the rain or the damaging winds, but where they do hit, they will be aggressive. u6–20 · How much people need to prepare depends heavily on where they are.
- Shields mildly criticises the naming of storms, saying some governments name storms a little too much, while still expecting one or two of this week's systems to get a name. u10–43 ·
- Europe's storm track has turned aggressive: three Atlantic low-pressure systems will bring heavy rain, damaging winds and rough seas to northern and western Europe this week, alongside a severe thunderstorm and flood threat in the Mediterranean today. What weather will Europe's intensified storm track bring from 20 October 2026 through the weekend, and where will the worst of it be?
How it argues
- thesis Aggressive Atlantic storm track batters northern and western Europe What weather will Europe's intensified storm track bring from 20 October 2026 through the weekend, and where will the worst of it be?
- theme An aggressive Atlantic storm track Three Atlantic lows will cross northern and western Europe this week, the first sign of the wetter autumn forecasters expected, though not every area will be hit.
- idea Three Atlantic lows cross northern and western Europe
- implication First hint of the expected wetter autumn
- counterargument Not everywhere is hit, but hits will be aggressive
- evidence Third low lifts toward Iceland, rain trails through France
- implication More Alpine snow likely by Saturday
- tension Storms named too often, yet some will be named
- idea Three Atlantic lows cross northern and western Europe
- theme Thursday's storm is the worst The second system will bring damaging gusts, power outages and coastal overwash to Ireland, the UK and northern France, with the strongest winds at the coasts.
- theme Mediterranean severe thunderstorms today Today Corsica, Italy and the Mediterranean face severe thunderstorms with flooding downpours that could bring up to 200 mm of rain.
- theme Heavy five-day rain totals Under the northern track, 50–100 mm of rain is widely possible over five days, but totals fall off to the east and Iberia stays mostly quiet.
- theme Warm south, cold locked north Ridging has kept southern Europe warm, and because the storm track stays north the real cold stays locked up there, which leaves open when the cold will arrive.
- theme An aggressive Atlantic storm track Three Atlantic lows will cross northern and western Europe this week, the first sign of the wetter autumn forecasters expected, though not every area will be hit.
The source, passage by passage
- u1 It's Tuesday, the 20th of October, 2026. I'm meteorologist Brian Shields. Thank you for being here on Mr. Weatherman Europe. We have an intense storm track that we're on the lookout for, including a severe weather threat today. Then back behind it, it is system after system after system moving in.
0:01 · Weather presenter in front of Europe radar map · A video still shows a man in a light checked shirt standing beside a large screen with a globe centered on Europe and the North Atlantic. Rain radar is overlaid in green, yellow and orange, with the heaviest bands west of the British Isles and over northern Algeria. The headline "AGGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN" sits at top right, and an orange swirl logo is at lower right. - u2 We're going to be tracking some high winds and some dangerous seas, plus some good rain for some of us. So, thank you for being here. Now, as we work our way forward, we're going to see a lot of systems punching in. So, I want to take you around. Here's the broad picture, and then we're going to zoom down in this video. Now, we've had a lot of ridging this October.
0:22 · City intersection at night in heavy rain · An elevated, video-still view of a wet urban intersection at night during a downpour. Spray and mist blur the road, streetlights glow, and traffic signals show red for the vehicles stopped in the far lane. A few cars wait or turn near the crosswalks, and trees at the corners are bent or blurred by wind and rain. - u3 That's allowed some of that warmth, or at least above average temperatures for us. And it is responsible for bringing in some of the severe weather. We've had parts of Portugal, Spain, France, Italy watching the islands across the Mediterranean. More on that in just a moment. But as we go throughout the week, we continue to see things punching in all the way through the weekend.
0:37 · Jet Stream Tracker forecast map presented by meteorologist · A man in a checked shirt stands beside a large screen showing a "Jet Stream Tracker" model map of the North Atlantic and Europe, valid Tuesday 20/10/2026 at 16:00. Colour bands from green to yellow to red mark increasing jet stream wind speed, with the strongest red cores over the western North Atlantic and near Iceland/Norway. White arrows trace an S-shaped flow curving up toward Scandinavia and another swinging north from Algeria and Tunisia toward Italy, and he gestures toward France. - u4 The aggressive storm track continues to bring things in off the Atlantic. Storm systems that work in areas of low pressure, France over toward the UK, Ireland, watching the Netherlands, Denmark, Belgium, as all of this works across. Now, for the most part, still staying to the north.
- u5 That keeps us on the warmer side, or above average in our southern zones, as expected as we round out the month. But thunderstorm, severe weather, that's going to be a likelihood for some of us as we go throughout the day. This is later today through this evening. Here's Italy right here.
1:14 · Jet Stream Tracker forecast over North Atlantic and Europe · A video still shows a man in a checked shirt standing beside a large screen with a "Jet Stream Tracker" map of the North Atlantic and Europe. The model run is for Sunday 25/10/2026 at 16:00. A strong jet stream, shown in red and yellow, runs across the Atlantic toward Ireland, the U.K. and northern France. Weaker winds are shown in green and blue elsewhere. - u6 We work our way back through the islands. Keep closing parts of uh France. We'll keep an eye on Spain as well, but more thunderstorms around. And we've had severe flooding over the last few days. It's been heartbreaking in spots, watching parts of France where we had those big-time downpours. And this is not for all of us, but where we get it, it is going to be quite aggressive.
- u7 There's that thunderstorm outlook, watching across the Mediterranean. Strong and even damaging winds will be possible today. Could even see some small hail, and can't rule out a brief chance of a tornado or a water spout. That is going to be a possibility later today right in this sector here.
1:52 · F033h automated convective outlook for Europe, four hazard maps · A screen showing four maps of Europe from rawinsonde.com (GEFS 0.5°), valid 15Z–18Z 20 Oct 26, initialized 06Z 19 Oct 26. Thunderstorm, hail, wind and tornado outlooks all highlight the same area in the western Mediterranean, near Sardinia and the Italian/French coast, with a smaller area at the far eastern edge near the Caucasus/Black Sea. A person's hand points at the wind outlook area. - u8 Now, over the next 7 days, it's not just right in through here, but to the north where we have that intense storm track, that jet stream that is rather aggressive, that is going to bring it above average rain for us and with it some gustier winds, even the possibility of damaging winds and those high seas, but a lot of us are going to see uh some rain over the next several days.
- u9 Not all of us, uh but especially where we have this uh storm track right through here. Here's the big picture for today. We've got one system working its way into Ireland, but this severe weather right through here, even watching back toward Switzerland, over toward Austria, uh parts of Italy.
2:29 · Weather presenter pointing at Europe rain forecast map · A still from a weather video shows a man in a light checked shirt gesturing at a large screen with a radar-style precipitation map of Europe and the North Atlantic. The label reads "Future Weather, Model: 20/10/2026 Tuesday 16:00". A white outlined loop circles the UK, Ireland and the sea to the west of France and Iberia, where bands of rain (green, yellow, red) are concentrated. Another heavy patch (red/orange) sits over Italy. - u10 We'll zoom down in just a moment. Then it's going to be system after system. Now, this here is by uh Thursday. You see one storm system diving in. This one may get a name. Certain governments like to name things, sometimes they name things a little bit too much, but we've got one system moving in. We'll get another moving in.
- u11 It's one after another as the week goes on. Here's another spin, and then we've got another area of low pressure that we'll be tracking as we get into the following working week. So, you could see how the pattern has turned busier, and we had expected it to trend wetter as we work our way through autumn, and this is a hint of that.
3:06 · Weather presenter beside Europe and North Atlantic forecast map · A man in a checked shirt stands at the left of a large screen showing a globe-style "Future Weather" model map centred on Europe and the North Atlantic. The map is labelled for 25/10/2026, Sunday 16:00, and shows precipitation in green, yellow and red. The heaviest bands are over Germany, Denmark and southern Scandinavia, and over the Atlantic west of Ireland and the Azores. - u12 Now, Thursday's storm system, that one looks to be the most aggressive uh with uh at least some stronger winds. You can see her progressing toward Ireland, Wales, England after that, working its way Friday, back toward Saturday, over toward Norway and Sweden, over toward Denmark. So, that's the progression of it.
- u13 So, let me start here, right? Many spots to cover, so I appreciate your patience. Let's zoom down here first because this is where that aggressive storm system is moving in. Then we'll swing to the south as well with some of that uh severe weather. So, we've got some rain later today into tomorrow.
3:46 · Forecast rainfall radar map of northwest Europe, 21 October 2026 · A still from a weather video shows a man in a light checked shirt standing at the left beside a large screen. The screen displays a "Future Weather" model map of the UK, Ireland and northwest Europe, with rain shown in green, yellow, orange and red. The heaviest rain (orange/red) is over Northern Ireland and Ireland, parts of France, and southern Switzerland/Alps, with widespread lighter rain over the Atlantic. - u14 You see it working across. this first spin. This is spin number one, area of low pressure number one working across. Here is Germany, Luxembourg, Belgium, the Netherlands seeing some of that rain at times. That will lift to the north, but the second area, this is the stronger one that I was just tracking for you.
- u15 So you see here, this is Thursday. Here we are in Ireland, Wales, England, Northern Ireland, Scotland. It works right across Thursday night into Friday. This is Friday and we'll see some aggressive winds out of this. We will track those winds in just a moment. There are some of the rain, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark, and then that area starts to lift to the north.
4:21 · Forecast rain map of UK and Europe, Friday 23/10/2026 · A weather presenter stands beside a large screen showing a "Future Weather" model map of north-western Europe for Friday 23/10/2026 at 01:00. Green rain bands cover the Atlantic and the British Isles, with a swirl of low pressure near Ireland and Wales. The heaviest rain, in orange and red, lies off western Scotland and the Irish Sea, with smaller heavy patches over Wales and northern England. - u16 Norway see seeing some of that rain by the time we get into Friday and you see the spin, the center of it right back through here. Heavier rain, Scotland watching the Faroe Islands and Shetland Islands. And then the third area, number three, starts to work in by the time we get into the weekend.
4:36 · Forecast rain radar map of northwest Europe, 24 Oct 2026 · A video still shows a presenter beside a large screen with a "Future Weather" model map of the North Atlantic and northwest Europe. Green, yellow and orange rain shading is overlaid on the map. The heaviest areas (yellow and orange) lie west of Ireland and near Iceland, with smaller patches over Denmark, the Netherlands, southern Norway and the Baltic states. The model is stamped Saturday 24/10/2026 at 10:00. - u17 Now this one will lift a little bit more to the north back toward Iceland, but draped along it once again, more rain all the way down through France. So back-to-back-to-back systems that will be working in just over the next few days. Now tracking the winds, this is today and this gives you a feel.
4:59 · Wind Tracker forecast map of northwest Europe with presenter · A video still shows a presenter in a checked shirt standing beside a large screen with a "Wind Tracker" model map of the North Atlantic and northwest Europe. Arrows and a purple-to-blue colour scale show wind speed and direction. Strong winds (purple/pink) lie over the Atlantic west of Ireland and the UK and across the North Sea toward Denmark. The map is for Tuesday 20/10/2026 at 16:00. - u18 Now we have so many ways to kind of measure the winds, units of measurement I should say with wind speeds. So again, I've got kilometers per hour and miles per hour here to help best keep you covered best I can. I know we've got other units we use though as well just depending on what which country you're watching from.
- u19 Now look at this. This here is by Thursday. Here's that more aggressive one and you see it right here. The white shadings, those would be winds gusting to 50 miles per hour, 80 kilometers per hour. The reds, that would be 110 kilometers per hour or 70 miles per hour and even some of the yellows offshore.
5:36 · Wind Tracker forecast map of northwest Europe with presenter · A video still shows a presenter in a checked shirt pointing at a large screen with a "Wind Tracker" model map of the UK, Ireland and northwest Europe for Thursday 22/10/2026 at 18:00. Wind speed is colour-coded with arrows showing direction. A small intense area of orange and red lies south-west of Ireland, around a swirling low-pressure centre, while much of the rest of the map is purple to blue (about 40–56 km/h). - u20 That could be pushing 130 to about 145 kilometers per hour. Again, over the open waters are 90 miles per hour. So here it is on Thursday. So, you get the idea it's pretty aggressive system. Not all of us get these winds, but we could get some tree damage out of this.
- u21 We'll be dealing with some spotty power outages. That'll be a possibility. This here is on Friday and you see that red shading right through here. Those are the winds of about 110 km per hour, 70, maybe 75 mph gusts. And then you see here by Friday, there's the spin, the rotation still of course across coastal sections, makes sense.
6:13 · Wind Tracker forecast map of UK and Europe · A weather presenter stands beside a large screen showing a "Wind Tracker" model map for Friday 23/10/2026 at 16:00, covering the British Isles and northwest Europe. Wind arrows swirl around a low-pressure centre near northern England and Scotland, with purple shading (about 56 km/h) over much of the Atlantic, Ireland and the North Sea, and lighter white areas marking stronger winds (80 km/h) over Wales, England and the Irish Sea. He gestures toward Ireland and Wales. - u22 Coming in off the water, that big fetch off the water, that's where those winds will be a little bit stronger. Then by Saturday, just kind of wiggling its way toward Norway, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Germany. It will be weakening at that point. But then at that point, we'll be keeping an eye on our next system that'll kind of drive itself more up to the north.
- u23 So, three areas we'll be watching. Now, to highlight things more specifically for you, at least in this sector, to give you a feel. Now, we can see a little bit higher, a little bit less, but this gives you a broad feel for what you need to prepare for. Thursday, Thursday night into Friday, for some of the wind speeds.
- u24 You can pick a spot on the map. You get right back toward Ireland, over toward Wales and England, back toward parts of France. In this area, 60 to 70 mph winds, or about 100 to 110 km per hour. Of course, they're going to be higher if you're closer to the water.
6:51 · Forecast map of highest wind gusts, Thursday and Friday · A weather presenter stands beside a large screen showing a map of the British Isles and northwest Europe, titled "Highest Wind Gusts, Thursday & Friday". Labels give gust speeds in mph and km/h. The strongest, 70 mph, are off the southwest coast, with 60 mph near the far southwest tip of England. Most other areas show 45–50 mph. - u25 That's where those wind speeds will be higher. Aggressive seas, too. Those seas are really going to be popping up. This is for tonight, right? That first area around today. So, this is for later today into tonight. You see some of those elevated seas. But even more so as we get into Thursday night, you can see some of these seas that are going to be way up there.
- u26 It's going to be so rocky and with that, some of the stronger winds. So, elevated seas. If you live in a spot that takes on a little bit of water and you don't have kind of that cliff that's nearby or some of that rocky terrain that helps out, we could get some of that coastal overwash. So, monitoring some of that coastal flooding as we go forward.
7:28 · Forecast wave height map of British Isles, Thursday PM · A video still shows a presenter standing beside a large screen with a WaveWatch III significant wave height and direction map of the UK and Ireland. Colours show the largest waves (5.5 m and over, purple and red) in the Atlantic southwest of Ireland and Cornwall. Waves are smaller, about 1–2 m, in the Irish Sea and parts of the North Sea. Black arrows show wave direction. The map is valid 00z Fri 23 Oct 2026. - u27 Now, shifting to the south as promised, this is the severe weather threat today. Uh you get back toward uh Corsica lifting to the north. Uh we get some of these storms right back through Italy for tonight. Could see an isolated tornado, wind damage a possibility. We were talking about that a moment ago.
- u28 Switzerland, Austria, active back toward Germany, Czechia, down through Slovenia, Kosovo. Scattered showers as we work our way into our Thursday forecast. Here's Portugal, Spain. So, one area works off toward Romania and Slovakia with some rain over toward Poland. Here's that other one on Thursday.
8:05 · Europe forecast rain map for 22 October 2026, 16:00 · A still from a weather video shows a large screen with a terrain-style map of Europe and the Mediterranean, labeled "Future Weather" with a model time of Thursday 22/10/2026 16:00. Green, yellow and red radar-style patches mark precipitation. The heaviest, shown in red and orange, lies off Ireland and Wales. A band of rain crosses Poland and Slovakia, and more lies over the eastern Black Sea and Caucasus region. A man in a light shirt stands at the left edge, partly visible and facing the map. - u29 That's mainly to the north. A front with that will be draped down to the south, but a little quieter Portugal, Spain. Not as much as we work our way back toward Italy over toward uh Serbia. But, as we get into Saturday to kind of round out the uh time frame into the weekend, could get a little more snow back toward the Alps. That'll be a possibility.
- u30 Scattered showers in between, but that next area, that one by the weekend, this one has a better chance of rain from Germany south back toward Switzerland, France. And again, adding on to the some of those uh snow totals across the uh higher terrain. And then we get a little resurgence here, a push of some of that moisture Albania, Greece by the time we get into Sunday.
8:43 · Future weather rain forecast map of Europe, 25 Oct 2026 · A video still shows a presenter standing beside a large screen with a precipitation forecast map of Europe, labelled "Future Weather, Model: 25/10/2026 Sunday 16:00". A band of heavy rain (yellow and red) runs north to south through the Netherlands, Germany, and Switzerland, with lighter green rain over France, the Balkans, Greece and western Turkey. Eastern Europe looks mostly dry. - u31 That rain chance will be picking up. Now, let's get back to the north. I want to kind of broaden this out because I don't want to leave anyone out. Here's Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Estonia. Uh we've got one area that's working through today into tomorrow as we talked about. Latvia, Lithuania, there's Poland. There's this first spin kind of rotating around.
- u32 But, here's that second one that moves in. This is the area where we zoomed down before. So, here's one, here's two. This is the next one that works in with some of those stronger winds. Power outages will be possible as that works across. And you could see all of this rain around.
9:20 · Forecast rain map of Europe on a TV screen · A video still shows a man gesturing toward a large screen with a "Future Weather" model map of northern and western Europe, valid for Friday 23/10/2026 at 04:00. Green rain bands cover the Atlantic and the British Isles. The heaviest precipitation (orange and red) sits over Northern Ireland, Scotland and parts of England. Scattered lighter rain appears over Scandinavia, the Baltic and Ukraine. - u33 We'll go over those rain totals in just a moment, the 5-day rain totals. So, this is that second spin, that leftover one Sweden, Finland right there. Uh this here is Friday. Let's work our way into Saturday. That kind of works its way toward Estonia, Belarus. We could catch a couple of those showers.
- u34 Germany, Denmark seeing some of the showers. And then we have this third area right here. This one though pivots more to the north back toward Iceland. Let me get my arm out of the way. Drape down. We've got more of that rain. You see it here uh all the way down as I mentioned down toward France. We'll see some of that uh rain around once we work our way into Sunday.
9:58 · Future weather precipitation forecast map of Northern Europe · A TV screen shows a satellite-style map of Northern Europe with a modeled precipitation overlay labeled "Future Weather," model date Sunday 25/10/2026 at 16:00. Green marks light rain, while yellow, orange and red mark heavier rain. The heaviest band runs from western Norway and Denmark south through Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg. More green rain bands lie over the Atlantic west of the British Isles and Iceland. - u35 So you I mentioned that intense storm track. Three areas that are going to be working across. Three areas of low pressure. Different degrees of intensity out of those. Slightly different tracks, but a busier pattern. So where do we end up in the rain bucket? Well, we get a look at some of these uh totals and this is different for a change.
- u36 There's a lot of white on the map. That's 100 mm of rain. Now these are 5-day totals. Takes us through Saturday. So uh we're not talking about this all at once. Uh we're going to see these three areas working in. That first one today, then the next one really Thursday night for some of us.
- u37 And then watching the weekend. But anywhere from about 50 to 100 mm will be possible. I do believe though we're going to have some spots that get even more. Upwards of about 125. Now as this works across, I was focused over here because as these areas move across, there's not quite as much.
- u38 Belarus uh Belarus, Lithuania for example, 10 maybe 25 mm of rain. So again, it it's going to be weakening as things work across. The Netherlands, we could get some spots that pick up 25. But if we get some of those downpours around or these repeat showers, we could get a few spots that top 75, maybe top 100 mm.
- u39 That'll be possible. Now to the south I mentioned Portugal and Spain. Not as much action with the exception still watching near Valencia and Barcelona. And then points off toward the east. And we have that severe weather threat today. And look at some of these totals. And a lot of this though, even though this is a 5-day total, a lot of this is actually today and uh tonight.
- u40 Uh because we're going to see some of those really big downpours with that severe weather threat. So we're looking at even some of these reds popping up 150 to 200. That is going to be a possibility. Watching out for the flooding in this sector. That's why we talked about this very early in the video.
- u41 Later today into tonight severe weather threat, flooding, gusty winds, damaging winds in a few storms, and that isolated tornado risk right here. Again, we get some weakening as everything kind of shifts off toward the east. But we'll get some scattered showers in some spots. 25 plus will be a possibility in our eastern zone.
- u42 So this is a really busy rest of the week into the upcoming weekend. Severe thunderstorm risk today, just highlighting that with the flood threat. Larger storm systems, those three that continue to arrive. A government or two may name one or two of them.
- u43 So don't be surprised to see that. Very active right through the weekend. Now with that said, a lot of these are still in our northern zones. So the real cold air, the what could be kind of not an Arctic blast this time of year, but some of those bigger chills sometimes we get this time of year.
- u44 They're still kind of locked up to the north. I'm going to update that in upcoming videos. Look ahead. We'll get into that longer term pattern. November, we'll dive into winter in upcoming videos right here on Mr. Weatherman Europe. Please let me know and others know what you got going on where you are.
- u45 Put it in the comments section. It helps others know what's happening especially with that severe weather threat. If you're dealing with any of that adverse weather, be safe and have a good day ahead.
13:03 · Weather broadcast slide: "Tracking What's Next" storm outlook · A video still shows a man in a light checked button-up shirt standing at the left of a large blue screen, looking toward the camera. The screen is titled "Tracking What's Next" and lists four weather bullet points about a severe thunderstorm risk, larger storm systems, an active weekend and cold air staying to the north.
Around it
storm track
The path along which extratropical cyclones regularly travel, typically steered by the jet stream.
Topic1 sourceSingle source
low-pressure area
A region where atmospheric pressure is lower than its surroundings, usually bringing clouds, wind and precipitation.
Topic1 sourceSingle source
severe thunderstorm
A thunderstorm that produces damaging winds, large hail or tornadoes.
Topic1 sourceSingle source
coastal overwash
The flow of seawater over a beach or coastal barrier during storm surge and high waves.
Topic1 sourceSingle source
flash flood
Rapid flooding of an area caused by intense rainfall over a short time.
Topic1 sourceSingle source
jet stream
A narrow band of strong upper-level winds that steers weather systems in the mid-latitudes.
Topic1 sourceSingle source
wind gust
A brief, sudden increase in wind speed above the sustained wind.
Topic1 sourceSingle source
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